Political forecast cycles

A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.     

Measuring benefits from spatially-explicit surface water quality improvements: The roles of distance,scope, scale,and size

Programs to improve water quality do not improve all water bodies equally. Evaluation of the benefits of such programs must account for where improvements occur and the relative magnitude of improvements that occur in different places. This study uses a choice experiment survey to explore how the value to a household of a surface water quality improvement varies as a function of (i) the distance between the household and the affected streams and rivers, (ii) the degree to which the quality of the water has been improved, (iii) how many stream and river miles have been improved, and (iv) the sizes of the affected streams and rivers. Results show evidence that value declines with distance in an approximately linear way, weak evidence that large rivers are worth more than small rivers, and no evidence that willingness-to-pay is nonlinear in either the degree of water quality improvement or the number of stream miles improved. These results indicate that it may be defensible in applied work to value small, spatially-explicit water quality improvement projects independently and then sum over projects.     

Does justice affect brand advocacy? Online brand advocacy behaviors as a response to hotel customers’ justice perceptions

This study focuses on customers' information-sharing behavior in the context of online brand advocacy behavior regarding hotel brands. We aim to explain hotel customers' online brand advocacy behavior through three-sided justice evaluations (i.e., justice for employees, justice for the self, and global belief in a just world), and their hotel satisfaction. Hypotheses are tested by using survey data acquired from 688 individuals on Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) through partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings show that customers' perceptions of justice for the self positively affect their hotel satisfaction, perceptions of justice for employees and the global belief in a just world positively affect online brand advocacy behavior, and hotel satisfaction also positively affects online brand advocacy behavior. We expand current research efforts on online brand advocacy research and provide theoretical and managerial implications for the development of marketing and management research and practice.     

粤港澳大湾区制造业集聚与区域创新

以2009—2020年粤港澳大湾区11个城市为研究对象，探讨制造业集聚与区域创新的关系。研究发现，制造业集聚显著提高区域创新水平，可通过提高企业竞争这一路径实现。进一步分析发现，金融业集聚对区域创新发展具有显著的正向关系，金融产业和制造业产融协同集聚显著提高区域创新水平。研究结果表明，制造业集聚加剧产业内部企业创新竞争，带动区域创新发展，且金融业在创新中起到积极的推动作用。指出应鼓励区域企业创新竞争，优化营商环境，为产业融合发展提供保障。     

Financial returns to collecting rare political economy books

Rare books of political economy are eminently collectable. Using historical prices, I employ hedonic regressions to estimate financial returns to collecting the works of ten eminent political economists and develop a price index for this corpus of collectables. For the observation period 1975–2019, I find that in those 45 years investing in rare political economy books yielded an average annual real rate of return of 2.8%, which is well in line with the returns to collecting rare books of classical literature. Compared with other collectibles such as fine art, investing in rare books turns out to be financially more profitable.     

我国粮食产后损失情况概述

本文系统分析了粮食产后各环节损失的原因及损失量,针对相关粮食损失原因及状况,提出了减少粮食产后损失的措施及建议,以期为我国实现节粮减损提供支持。     

理性人的人情味：快手“老铁经济”的内在机制和逻辑

以中国用户规模最大短视频平台之一快手头部主播直播带货推广项目的案例和数据分析为基础,构建解释快手直播电商经济底层逻辑的社会学机制模型.提出快手直播电商经济背后的3种社会学机制:关键影响者逻辑、身份认同逻辑和社会网络逻辑.通过LDA文档主题生成模型将快手主播的直播语义字段进行文档主题生成归类,发现情感因素和理性因素词交互影响受众的购买决策,它背后的社会学作用机制是关键影响者逻辑和身份认同逻辑.2020年快手直播电商半年交易额已达1044亿元,理解快手直播背后的影响机制,能够持续优化推广模型,在互联网流量广告领域具有重要的应用价值.     

农村新业态发展现状、问题与对策研究

近年来,农村新业态快速发展,成为农村经济发展的新动能。文章在介绍农村新业态发展现状的基础上,剖析了当前存在的顶层设计不清晰、要素制约突出、水平有待提升以及规范化不足等系列问题;结合乡村振兴战略全面实施带来的新机遇,提出要强化顶层设计、优化发展环境、加快转型提质、加大监管力度等政策建议,加快促进农村新业态健康有序发展。     

国内外众创经济研究述评——基于文献计量与扎根理论分析

立足众创时代特征,运用文献计量对1999—2018年间1701篇国内外众创文献挖掘分析,探寻众创经济特点主题,探析众创发展知识基础,探求众创研究演进脉络,并获取众创经济视域下核心语句和高频词语,运用扎根理论对抽取的126篇的众创文献样本进行三级编码,进而构建众创研究的整合性理论框架,探究众创研究的系统性发展图景。研究表明,众创理论假说大量问世,众创文献热点主题包括六类,众创经济研究存在两种演进趋势,众创经济治理系统理论具有三个维度;未来应关注众创主体思辨性、众创要素系统性和众创技术本土化等专题研究。